Tuesday, February 24, 2009

U.S. Bailout, Stimulus Pledges Total $11.6 Trillion

All information culled from Bloomberg:

The following table details how the U.S. government has pledged more than $11.6 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers over the past 19 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Changes from the previous table, published Feb. 9, include a $787 billion economic stimulus package. The Federal Reserve has new lending commitments totaling $1.8 trillion. It expanded the Term Asset-Backed Lending Facility, or TALF, by $800 billion to $1 trillion and announced a $1 trillion Public-Private Investment Fund to buy troubled assets from banks.

The U.S. Treasury also added $200 billion to its support commitment for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the country’s two largest mortgage-finance companies.


--- Amounts (Billions)---


Limit Current
================================= =============== ===========
Total $11,623.63 $3,800.18
--------------------------------- --------------- -----------
Federal Reserve Total $7,565.63 $1,478.88
Primary Credit Discount $110.74 $65.14
Secondary Credit $0.19 $0.00
Primary dealer and others $147.00 $25.27
ABCP Liquidity $152.11 $12.72
AIG Credit $60.00 $37.36
Net Portfolio CP Funding $1,800.00 $248.67
Maiden Lane (Bear Stearns) $29.50 $28.82
Maiden Lane II (AIG) $22.50 $18.82
Maiden Lane III (AIG) $30.00 $24.34
Term Securities Lending $250.00 $115.28
Term Auction Facility $900.00 $447.56
Securities lending overnight $10.00 $5.59
Public-Private Investment Fund $1,000.00 $0.00
Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility $1,000.00 $0.00
Currency Swaps/Other Assets $606.00 $417.86
MMIFF $540.00 $0.00
GSE Debt Purchases $600.00 $33.58
Citigroup Bailout Fed Portion $220.40 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout $87.20 $0.00
--------------------------------- --------------- -----------
FDIC Total $1,551.50 $400.30
FDIC Liquidity Guarantees $1,400.00 $261.30
GE $139.00 $139.00
Citigroup Bailout FDIC $10.00 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout FDIC $2.50 $0.00
--------------------------------- --------------- -----------
Treasury Total $2,206.50 $1,621.00
TARP $700.00 $387.00
Tax Break for Banks $29.00 $29.00
Stimulus Package $168.00 $168.00
Stimulus II $787.00 $787.00
Treasury Exchange Stabilization $50.00 $50.00
Student Loan Purchases $60.00 $0.00
Citigroup Bailout $5.00 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout $7.50 $0.00
Support for Fannie/Freddie $400.00 $200.00
--------------------------------- --------------- -----------
HUD Total $300.00 $300.00
Hope for Homeowners FHA $300.00 $300.00



No comment is neccesary.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

MBA, CFA, BFD

"MBA, CFA, BFD."

I once had a boss that used that phrase anytime some greenhorn equity salesman would try to impress him with their spit-shined education credentials. I always got a kick out of that, especially since he was a CFA chartholder himself, and several of my colleagues had either an MBA, a CFA or both. He was a cynical man with a chip on his shoulder who was also fond of referring to this elite crowd as "the lucky sperm club." His roots were quite different than what he assumed were the roots of those he denigrated. He worked his way through a state school while supporting a young wife and special needs daughter as a tire salesman before launching a career in investment bank equity research which lead to his eventual early retirement as a rich, successful portfolio manager. I think it was his snide way of saying what Mark Twain once said: "I never let my schooling get in the way of my education." He had an excellent nose for bovine excrement, and was particularly suspicious of the brand that Ivy league MBA-types were fond of peddling.

There's an opinion column on Bloomberg today titled, "Harvard Narcissists With MBAs Killed Wall Street."

Twenty or 30 years ago, it was common for the best and the brightest to be doctors or engineers. By the 2000s, they wanted to be investment bankers.

When Wall Street was run by people randomly selected from the population, it was able to survive everything. After the best and brightest took over, it died the first time real-estate prices dropped 20 percent.

If you walked into any major Wall Street firm a year ago and randomly selected an employee, chances are that person would either be from an Ivy League school like Harvard University, or have an MBA, or both.
While there may be a handful of multi-talented people working on Wall St. for reasons other than the money they earn, the vast majority are attracted to Wall St. for one reason: the pay scale. The rationale being that if one is going to be a working stiff, one may as well be a working stiff at the top of the pay scale. The problem from the employer's point of view is that the pay scale becomes a self-reinforcing juggernaut rather quickly. The best and brightest are attracted to Wall St. for the money, so Wall St. firms get into a bidding war to attract the best and brightest. Elite universities then use that salary data to persuade the next crop of the best and brightest to attend their program, which further concentrates the size of the pool in which the best and brightest swim. Pretty soon all you have to choose from is the most elite pool that exists--the Ivy league and a handful of other institutions of the same caliber. The dangers of the resulting groupthink are rarely discussed, though today they are as apparent as a Skid Row hooker in a nunnery, and need no further elaboration.

What do you get from an MBA? One recent study found that MBAs acquire an enormous amount of self-confidence during their graduate education. They learn to believe that they are the best and the brightest.

This narcissism has a real career impact. Psychologists at Ohio State University studied the behavior of 153 MBA students, who were put in groups of four and asked to orchestrate a large financial transaction on behalf of an imaginary company. The psychologists observed that the students who had the strongest narcissistic traits were most likely to emerge as leaders.

According to Amy Brunell, the lead author, the results of the study had large implications for real-world settings, because “narcissistic leaders tend to have volatile and risky decision- making performance and can be ineffective and potentially destructive leaders.”

There is no shortage of narcissism on display in the upper echelons of Wall St. firms. Less overt but even more destructive is the narcissism displayed in the upper echelons of government officialdom. I say more destructive because government seldom makes any pretensions of fiscal constraint. Why should they? Afterall, it is not their own money they are borrowing and spending. Though it must be noted that TARP 1.0 has done a pretty thorough job of making private sector banking just as unaccountable as the public sector.

All of this may sound familiar to anybody who has read Herman Hesse's 1946 Nobel prize winning novel, The Glass Bead Game. In it, a member of the futuristic ivory tower elite--long having been insulated from the realities of life--decides to cast his privileged status aside for a life of rubbing elbows with the commoners. Tragedy befalls the protagonist when he drowns during what would be considered a routine swim across a lake by anybody who had not grown up insulated in the ivory tower. The moral of the story is that no matter how smart you think you are, nobody is above the laws of nature.

Another word that comes to mind when trying to describe the predicament Wall St. finds itself in is incest. When you choose the bulk of your work force from a single gene pool--no matter how gifted that gene pool may seem to be--the weakest traits inevitably surface and manifest themselves in such a way that makes the destruction of the host a real possibility. Ask the Ptolemaic Dynasty how incest worked out for them.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

It is done


It looks like both houses of Congress have agreed to the 1,000+ page, $787,000,000,000 "stimulus" package that is going to save our country from the abyss.

Before you accuse our elected officials of vigorously scratching the itch to spend our children's money, remember, it could have been worse:

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the stimulus package will cost $787 billion, rather than $789 billion lawmakers estimated earlier this week.
That is what passes as fiscal responsibility on Capitol Hill.

And this, from San Francisco's favorite carpetbagging daughter:

“The jobs the American people care about most -- their own -- will be dramatically safer the day that President Obama signs this plan into law,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat.
I know I feel much safer about my job after reading that. Please, somebody find me one sound-byte that falls out of her yapper that isn't plum-crazy talk.

This is interesting:

Lawmakers dropped provisions barring funds from going to museums, arts centers and theaters. A ban on money to casinos, golf courses, zoos and swimming pools was retained.
I like museums, arts centers and theaters as much as the next guy, which is why when I use them, I pay the price of admission which I assume is structured to cover the costs of doing business. Why they should get free money from the government; while casinos, golf courses, zoos and swimming pools(??) are all forced to survive in the capitalist--sorry--socialist wilderness on their own is beyond me. Well if this results in a reduction of the $25 price of admission to the shiny new California Academy of Sciences I suppose I will be forced to reconsider my stance on the entire "stimulus" bill.

Lawmakers deleted provisions requiring businesses receiving stimulus funding to use E-Verify, a government program used to ensure workers are in the country legally.
By all means, we must not upset the largest potential block of new democratic voters, at least not until after the 2010 census. If Obama successfully wrestles control of the census count away from the Dept. of Commerce and into the White House--which is illegal if the US Constitution is your guiding principle anyhow--illegal aliens will be a permanent fixture of the democratic machine.

Most senators had left the chamber’s floor hours before the final tally was announced. The vote was held open for five hours until Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, returned from his home state to cast the deciding vote for the bill. Brown had been in Ohio following the death of his mother earlier this week.
Rest In Peace Mrs. Brown; government has yet to invent a way to tax you in the afterlife. And if you thought curious, inquiring congressional minds may want to stick around and read what they just signed , you'd be wrong:

“It is over a thousand pages,” said Representative Tom Price, a Georgia Republican. “It is physically impossible for any member to have read this bill.”
I've been reading the abridged version of the History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire for almost 3 years now. It comes in a little under 1,000 pages. It is taking me a long time to read because it is a lot to digest, and nobody is paying me to read it. Maybe I should just thumb through it and tell people I read it instead. At least I wouldn't let contemplating any of the details hold me back from taking a first-class trip to Europe.

On a more positive note, what we need are more economists like Michelle talking no-nonsense economics with Obama supporters, capturing it on video and broadcasting it on YouTube.


(h/t texas rainmaker via instapundit for the image at the top of the page. Probably photoshopped or a prank, but it does capture the spirit of the Obama rapture rather well.)

Monday, February 09, 2009

The United States of Insolvency

This chart caught my eye over the weekend (from the Economist):



The biggest force behind the bond-market shock is the onslaught of new issuance as the government seeks to finance the gaping budget deficit, Fed liquidity programmes, mortgage purchases and bank bail-outs. Yields moved still higher this week partly on the Treasury’s announcement that it would borrow a whopping $493 billion this quarter. Wrightson ICAP, a research firm, predicts the Treasury will issue $1.8 trillion this year, which combined with $1.5 trillion last year, would exceed all the net borrowing of the prior 27 years combined.
Where are all the hyperventilating voices that expressed outrage when Dick Cheney said, "...deficits don't matter" almost 5 years ago?

The "state" of California

Speaking as a third generation Californian, my family has lived through many of the ups and downs our state has experienced over the last 100 years. One of the things that has always impressed me about this great state is its uncanny ability to reinvent itself in the face of adversity. Lately though, I have become worried about the future of this state. This goes against my nature, as I am generally an optimist and not given to alarmist reactions to events.

Though, when our state's elected officials cannot do the job we pay them to do by reaching an agreement on how to close a $46bil budget gap while our general obligation (GO) debt rating gets cut to "A"--giving us the lowest credit rating of any state and making borrowing even more expensive; this worries me. Sacramento, please end your symbiotic, incestuous relationship with your public union enablers immediately.

When in the midst of this, the "prison czar" has proposed $8 billion of wildly excessive prison health care construction (with the additional cost of $2bil a year for maintenance) complete with fitness centers for "wellness promotion," music and art therapy, contemporary landscaping and maybe even a yoga room for prisoners; this worries me. Hey guys, don't forget to grab a condom on your way back from arts and music so you can engage in a little state-sanctioned sodomy while $300,000 a year guards look the other way.

When a public employee can retire at the age of 52 and collect 78% of the $112,000 salary he earned before stepping down and maintain full health care coverage for life while the rest of us working in the private sector watch our 401(k) retirement plans vanish like a puddle in the Mojave desert and fret over the astronomical cost of COBRA should we lose our jobs; this worries me.

When the recently sworn in city supervisor in my district makes his first order of business to investigate allegations of police department racial profiling of Latinos in what is a predominately Latino district; this worries me. Next he'll be investigating ice for its habit of being frozen.

I fear we're about to reach a tipping point. We simply cannot continue on this fiscally irresponsible path. I may be old fashioned, but I always thought the public sector was supposed to serve the private sector, not the other way around. What we now have is a shrinking private sector that is being choked to death by a self-entitled public sector.

The one thing I am absolutely certain of is that the golden egg-laying goose is in its death-throes. When the autopsy comes back, there will be nothing but state politician and public sector union fingerprints all over its neck.

Friday, February 06, 2009

The time warp is stuck on continuous play

Trivia time! Guess the year of the following headline:

Fannie Mae to Loosen Rules for Home-Loan Refinancing

a) 1989
b) 1999
c) 2009

If you guessed "C" give yourself a prize!

From the article:

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance company under government control, will loosen rules for homeowners seeking to lower their loan payments by refinancing.

Fannie Mae will drop some credit-score requirements, reduce income-documentation standards and waive the need for appraisals in some cases, according to a notice yesterday to lenders posted on the Washington-based company’s Web site.
The changes apply to loans that the company owns or guarantees.

The company, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the $12 trillion in residential mortgage debt, is seeking to break a “logjam” in refinancing and allow more homeowners to take advantage of near-record low interest rates, according to Brian Faith, a Fannie Mae spokesman. The increased flexibility for consumers isn’t large enough to significantly harm mortgage- bond investors and mortgage insurers, analysts said.


Imagine if your house was burning down and when the fire department showed up, instead of turning on the water hoses they busted out the flame thrower instead.

For some strange reason, this scene from Groundhog Day keeps playing in my mind's eye.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

Death and T...oh nevermind.

It is pretty clear to me that the reason Democrats are such big fans of taxes is because they don't pay any taxes.

Leona Helmsley was right, when she allegedly said to one of her housekeepers, "We don't pay taxes. Only the little people pay taxes ..."

Though I wonder, what would happen if all of us little people simultaneously decided to stop paying taxes?