Wednesday, November 19, 2008

The State of Wall St.


When I first started working in the finance industry years ago, one of the first books I was advised to read was "Liar's Poker" by Michael Lewis. It remains one of the more memorable books I've ever read for a few reasons, mostly though because I like his writing style.

In the following article from Conde Nast's Portfolio.com website, Mr. Lewis offers us an entertaining glimpse of the grinding gears that are currently driving Wall St. to the brink of the abyss. He ends the article with an informal interview of his old boss and antagonist in the book that made him famous, John Gutfreund, the former CEO of Salomon Brothers.

You can’t really tell someone that you asked him to lunch to let him know that you don’t think of him as evil. Nor can you tell him that you asked him to lunch because you thought that you could trace the biggest financial crisis in the history of the world back to a decision he had made. John Gutfreund did violence to the Wall Street social order—and got himself dubbed the King of Wall Street—when he turned Salomon Brothers from a private partnership into Wall Street’s first public corporation. He ignored the outrage of Salomon’s retired partners. (“I was disgusted by his materialism,” William Salomon, the son of the firm’s founder, who had made Gutfreund C.E.O. only after he’d promised never to sell the firm, had told me.) He lifted a giant middle finger at the moral disapproval of his fellow Wall Street C.E.O.’s. And he seized the day. He and the other partners not only made a quick killing; they transferred the ultimate financial risk from themselves to their shareholders. It didn’t, in the end, make a great deal of sense for the shareholders. (A share of Salomon Brothers purchased when I arrived on the trading floor, in 1986, at a then market price of $42, would be worth 2.26 shares of Citigroup today—market value: $27.) But it made fantastic sense for the investment bankers.

From that moment, though, the Wall Street firm became a black box. The shareholders who financed the risks had no real understanding of what the risk takers were doing, and as the risk-taking grew ever more complex, their understanding diminished. The moment Salomon Brothers demonstrated the potential gains to be had by the investment bank as public corporation, the psychological foundations of Wall Street shifted from trust to blind faith.

No investment bank owned by its employees would have levered itself 35 to 1 or bought and held $50 billion in mezzanine C.D.O.’s. I doubt any partnership would have sought to game the rating agencies or leap into bed with loan sharks or even allow mezzanine C.D.O.’s to be sold to its customers. The hoped-for short-term gain would not have justified the long-term hit.

No partnership, for that matter, would have hired me or anyone remotely like me. Was there ever any correlation between the ability to get in and out of Princeton and a talent for taking financial risk?

I think those closing paragraphs illustrate nicely the problems associated with removing moral hazard from the risk/reward equation.

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Now What?

Now that The One is set to ascend to the throne, what will all of his disciples do with their free time? The following video gives us a clue:

Obama Supporters Devastated By Election Win!

IowaHawk has an excellent post-election essay here.


On a more serious note, this is just plain creepy...


As an American, I congratulate Obama on his win. I will respect the office of the President as long as the person holding the office deserves respect. Hopefully, he will govern from the center and jettison the hardcore leftist crowd that helped him win. Based on his thin record, I fear that he will not, and we as a nation may have to endure the spasms associated with a severe case of buyer's remorse as portions of his coalition slowly discover they've been left at the altar. Apart from that, there are many people who do not have the United States of America's best interests at heart holding Obama chits, and it won't be long before they start expecting their dividend payments.

Every President inherits a host of issues from the former administration. How Obama positions himself--either as a victim of "Bush's failed policies" or as the Leader of the Free World--will tell us a lot about his character. It is my hope that he chooses the latter, because our nation can ill-afford the former.