Thursday, March 26, 2009

Congress and NASCAR


Here's a great idea. Every member of Congress should wear a one piece uniform emblazoned with the icons of their corporate sponsors:

Some people wear their hearts on their sleeve. Members of Congress should wear their sponsors on their chest.

This isn’t an original idea. About a month ago, a friend forwarded me a post that was making its way around the blogosphere at the speed of light:

“Members of Congress should be compelled to wear uniforms like Nascar drivers, so we could identify their corporate sponsors.”

Great idea. Just imagine what that would look like.

Senator Chris Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and ethically challenged head honcho at the Senate Banking Committee, files into a congressional hearing room, wields his gavel and calls the committee to order. The dress code is business casual: collared shirts, no jacket required.

Dodd is sporting a pink Lacoste shirt, with his “endorsements” emblazoned across his chest in large, black letters (the corporate logos go on the back):


  Citigroup Inc.                $428,294
United Technologies $380,550
Bear Stearns $347,350
American International Group $281,038
Deloitte & Touche $270,220

And that’s just a list of Dodd’Top 5 lifetime contributors, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

The list goes on: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers.



From a company's standpoint, investing in a politician delivers a far higher return on investment than any other investment vehicle out there:

The companies that have been awarded taxpayers' money from Congress's bailout bill spent $77 million on lobbying and $37 million on federal campaign contributions, The Center for Responsive Politics finds. The return on investment: 258,449%.

Where does a regular guy like me find a ROI like that?

The New Republic has an article today that does a good job of naming a few of the more egregious hypocrites alongside their doublespeak who are currently serving in the 111th Congress.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

There's that saying...

Oh you know the one, something about pictures and what they're worth in words...

Budget deficit: past, present and future (source: Wapo)



This one has words and pictures. That doubles its value!

Thursday, March 19, 2009

It wouldn't be a day...

...without tax evaders in the news:

California Congressman Calls Maryland Home to Gain Tax Credit
Representative Pete Stark, the second-ranking Democrat on the Ways and Means panel, in 2007 and 2008 saved a total of $3,853 in state and Anne Arundel County taxes on a Maryland waterfront home that he claims as his primary residence, according to Maryland tax disclosures.

Homeowners in Maryland qualify for the tax credit for residences they use “for the legal purposes of voting, obtaining a driver’s license, and filing income tax returns,” according to the Maryland Assessment Procedures Manual.

Stark, 77, confirmed in a telephone interview last week that he and his wife, Deborah, are registered to vote in California’s 13th congressional district using the address of her parents in San Lorenzo, about 25 miles southeast of San Francisco. Stark also said both he and his wife have California driver’s licenses.
I have an idea. Why doesn't Pete Stark go back to Maryland and stay there, and quit pretending to speak for the people of California? He can take that other carpetbagger from Maryland, Nancy Pelosi, with him.

Lawmaker: TARP Companies Owe Back Taxes

Of the 23 top recipients of government capital through the Troubled Asset Relief Program, 13 owe unpaid federal taxes, a U.S. House oversight committee reported Thursday.

House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Oversight Chairman John Lewis (D., Ga.) said the companies owe a combined more than $220 million in unpaid federal taxes. Of those companies, two owe more than $100 million each.

Rep. Lewis accused the Treasury of engaging in poor documentation practices by failing to ask companies to prove they didn't owe federal taxes, a requirement for government aid.
It seems the House Ways and Means Committee has its hands full these days. Not only can at least one member not live up to the standards they are supposed to apply to others, they can't even do the job they're paid to do. Sounds like they deserve to be a part of the AIG bonus pool.

In other news, Intrade is currently predicting a >20% chance that Tim Geithner will leave his post at the Treasury Department before June, and a 33% chance he'll be out before the year ends.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

The Dodd Amendment

I do believe that the Obama administration and his congressional enablers finally have a plan in place to remove the last vestiges of faith in the federal government any of us may still harbor exempt their campaign contributors from having to take unsavory responsibility for their bad business decisions:

While the Senate was constructing the $787 billion stimulus last month, Dodd added an executive-compensation restriction to the bill. The provision, now called “the Dodd Amendment” by the Obama Administration provides an “exception for contractually obligated bonuses agreed on before Feb. 11, 2009” -- which exempts the very AIG bonuses Dodd and others are now seeking to tax.

He was for the bonuses before he was against them. John Kerry would appreciate that. Also, it's pretty rich that they want to "tax" these bonuses. As the tax laws already stand the federal government will get about 35% of the gross amount. And depending on what state the recipients live in, they'll be lucky to see 55% of the gross amount after the local governments are through.

Dodd’s original amendment did not include that exemption, and the Connecticut Senator denied inserting the provision.

"Idunnoitwasn'tme!" Classic 3rd grade denial.

“I can't point a finger at someone who was responsible for putting those dates in,” Dodd told FOX. “I can tell you this much, when my language left the senate, it did not include it. When it came back, it did.”

Of course he can't point a finger. If he did there would be three pointing back at at him. I bet even Senator Dodd can understand that 3>1.

This explains a lot (click to enlarge):




The WSJ has an editorial today that gets to the heart of the matter:

The Washington crowd wants to focus on bonuses because it aims public anger on private actors, not the political class. But our politicians and regulators should direct some of their anger back on themselves -- for kicking off AIG's demise by ousting Mr. Greenberg, for failing to supervise its bets, and then for blowing a mountain of taxpayer cash on their AIG nationalization.



The best insurance policy AIG ever invested in was political donations to the left side of the aisle.

UPDATE 3/19/09: Dodd admits Role in AIG Controversy

Why does this guy still have a job?

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

AIG's earmarks

The latest outrage washing across the political landscape is over AIG's decision to honor a commitment to pay out $165 million in bonuses to certain employees. Obama has said that he will "pursue every single legal avenue to block" the payout.

At issue are retention bonuses for employees of AIG's financial-products division, whose credit default swaps brought AIG to the brink of collapse. The government controls AIG through an 80% equity stake and as a major lender and doesn't have legal authority to freeze payments on its own. The U.S. has committed $173.3 billion to AIG, including $70 billion from Treasury's rescue fund.

I see no difference between this and the earmark-laden bills that regularly get passed through Congress with nary a peep. Now that AIG is a de facto government owned entity, the bonus payments--just like earmarks--are a form of patronage. We already know how Obama feels about the AIG earmarks, and he has repeatedly said he is against all earmarks, though it seems that some earmarks are worse than others. Namely the ones that originate in Congress are OK, but the ones that originate in the private sector are not. Seems he's just blowing hot air of out his yapper.

Lest you think that the banks who have taken TARP money are going to sit still and let the government dictate a new, equal and just pay structure, think again. Reminds me of a beggar with a stick.

For the record, I am against all earmarks and all bailouts. Does anybody think that AIG would be paying bonuses if they'd been allowed to go bankrupt?

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

The wisdom of Ogden Nash

In honor of our new socialist overlords, I though I would share a poem that was written during another era that has an increasing number of parallels to today; an era known as the Great Depression.

One From One Leaves Two

Higgledy piggledy, my black hen,
She lays eggs for gentlemen.
Gentlemen come every day
To count what my black hen doth lay.
If perchance she lays too many,
They fine my hen a pretty penny;
If perchance she fails to lay,
The gentlemen a bonus pay.

Mumbledy pumbledy, my red cow,
She’s cooperating now.
At first she didn’t understand
That milk production must be planned;
She didn’t understand at first
She either had to plan or burst,
But now the government reports
She’s giving pints instead of quarts.

Fiddle de dee, my next-door neighbors,
They are giggling at their labors.
First they plant the tiny seed,
Then they water, then they weed,
Then they hoe and prune and lop,
They they raise a record crop,
Then they laugh their sides asunder,
And plow the whole caboodle under.

Abracadabra, thus we learn
The more you create, the less you earn.
The less you earn, the more you’re given,
The less you lead, the more you’re driven,
The more destroyed, the more they feed,
The more you pay, the more they need,
The more you earn, the less you keep,
And now I lay me down to sleep.
I pray the Lord my soul to take
If the tax-collector hasn’t got it before I wake.

Ogden Nash


"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."--Mark Twain

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

The mortgage plan is revealed

U.S. Sets Rules for Mortgage Modifications, 2% Mortgages

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration set loan modification guidelines for its $75 billion homeowner rescue plan, agreeing to pay lenders for altering troubled mortgages while reducing borrowers’ interest rates to as low as 2 percent.


2 percent? sign me up! Sadly, I do not think I'll qualify, as I am current in my mortgage payments and have chosen to not live beyond my means. However I am troubled by all of this government intervention in the mortgage market. Though I don't think that's the kind of "troubled mortgage" candidate they're looking for.

The voluntary initiative, announced on Feb. 18, would require applicants to fully document their income with pay stubs and tax returns, and sign an affidavit attesting to “financial hardship,” according to documents released by the U.S. Treasury in Washington today. The second, larger part of the plan relies on government-run Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance loans.


Here's a really stupid, naive question: how does one document the ultimate financial hardship--losing one's job--by providing pay stubs and tax returns?

I hope mentioning the fact that Fannie and Freddie will be relied upon to refinance these loans is not meant to inspire confidence.

“This is not going to save every person’s home,” presidential Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said during a briefing. The plan offers help “for those who have played by the rules.”
Mr Gibbs, I played by the rules. Can you please be more specific?

President Barack Obama’s initial proposal, the biggest federal foray into real estate since the Great Depression, ignited criticism from Republican lawmakers that the government would end up subsidizing homeowners who are financially capable of surviving the economic slump on their own.
It would be encouraging to see that the GOP has lately re-discovered that one of their founding principles used to be opposition to Big Government if it weren't so unabashedly pathetic.

Lenders likely won’t be able to offer the loan modifications for a few weeks as they update their technology to process the applications, a mortgage-industry official said on a conference call today with Obama administration officials.


Not surprising since they've laid off virtually all of their employees.

Obama is seeking to curb a jump in foreclosures that, along with a drop in consumer credit, is lowering property values, dragging down the economy and keeping prospective homebuyers away. The housing market lost $3.3 trillion in value last year, and almost one in six owners with mortgages owed more than their homes were worth, according to a report last month by Zillow.com.

“This plan will help make home ownership more affordable for 9 million American families and in doing so, help to stop the damaging impact that declining home prices have on all Americans,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in a statement.
Please somebody--anybody--show me where it is written that housing prices are only allowed to go up. I'm sure it's written right under the rule that states certain banks and insurance companies are "too big to fail".

For a loan modification, lenders would have to reduce the mortgage payments to no more than 38 percent of the borrower’s income. Then, the Treasury would share the cost for lenders to cut that debt-to-income ratio to 31 percent, the government said.

The modifications would allow a lender to drop the interest rate to as little as 2 percent to achieve the ratio, and if necessary, extend the term or amortization of the loan to as long as 40 years. If more effort is needed, lenders can forbear the principal and in some cases forgive, or reduce, portions of the principal altogether, the documents show.

Sounds like an excellent incentive to work as little as possible.

The proposal, Garrett said, may violate requirements that homeowners put up at least 20 percent of the appraised value of a home or carry mortgage insurance.

“Due to falling home values, many of the potential applicants for Treasury’s foreclosure mitigation refinancing plan will now find themselves” below that level, Garrett said. “There is no specific language under this title that provides the regulator of these two entities any discretion for when or how to apply this requirement.”

The problem with making stuff up as you go is that you often run afoul of the rule of law--not that that matters too much to our current administration. They're acting "for our own good" so there's nothing to worry about. Paging unintended consequences...


At least some vacant houses in Florida are being put to good use:

Kids Party in Foreclosed Homes, Leave Wake of Vandalism

As one astute commenter at the bottom of the article put it, ""These kids DO own these houses and will be paying for them for generations...!"

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Geithner to fight himself; Obama channels Jim Cramer

Everytime I see Treasury Sec Geithner's mug on TV, this is how I envision him:


Geithner: Obama to fight international tax dodgers

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama's Treasury secretary says the administration will unveil a series of rules and measures in the coming months to limit the ability of international companies to avoid U.S. taxes.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the House Ways and Means Committee on Tuesday that Obama will propose legislation to limit U.S. companies' ability to shelter foreign earnings from taxation in the U.S. He also said the administration will try to limit wealthy Americans' ability to use tax havens to avoid taxation.

He did not immediately provide details.



Separately, Obama had this to say about the stock market:

"What you're now seeing is profit and earnings ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal"


I'm no CFA, but even I know there is no such thing as a profit and earnings ratio, let alone multiple "profit and earnings ratios" . I know that the very useful price to earnings (P/E) ratio exists, but a profit to earnings ratio? No such thing. Perhaps it was just a gaffe, and he really meant P/E ratio. I would give him the benefit of the doubt if I thought that he actually knew anything about finance or wealth creation. But as a self described community organizer and a lawyer to boot, I will assume he is as well-versed in finance as the rest of his cohort. By that I mean he only knows how to take wealth from those who create it and give it to those who do not.

By the way, WTF is the President of the United States of America doing making a market timimg call in the first place?

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

U.S. Bailout, Stimulus Pledges Total $11.6 Trillion

All information culled from Bloomberg:

The following table details how the U.S. government has pledged more than $11.6 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers over the past 19 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Changes from the previous table, published Feb. 9, include a $787 billion economic stimulus package. The Federal Reserve has new lending commitments totaling $1.8 trillion. It expanded the Term Asset-Backed Lending Facility, or TALF, by $800 billion to $1 trillion and announced a $1 trillion Public-Private Investment Fund to buy troubled assets from banks.

The U.S. Treasury also added $200 billion to its support commitment for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the country’s two largest mortgage-finance companies.


--- Amounts (Billions)---


Limit Current
================================= =============== ===========
Total $11,623.63 $3,800.18
--------------------------------- --------------- -----------
Federal Reserve Total $7,565.63 $1,478.88
Primary Credit Discount $110.74 $65.14
Secondary Credit $0.19 $0.00
Primary dealer and others $147.00 $25.27
ABCP Liquidity $152.11 $12.72
AIG Credit $60.00 $37.36
Net Portfolio CP Funding $1,800.00 $248.67
Maiden Lane (Bear Stearns) $29.50 $28.82
Maiden Lane II (AIG) $22.50 $18.82
Maiden Lane III (AIG) $30.00 $24.34
Term Securities Lending $250.00 $115.28
Term Auction Facility $900.00 $447.56
Securities lending overnight $10.00 $5.59
Public-Private Investment Fund $1,000.00 $0.00
Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility $1,000.00 $0.00
Currency Swaps/Other Assets $606.00 $417.86
MMIFF $540.00 $0.00
GSE Debt Purchases $600.00 $33.58
Citigroup Bailout Fed Portion $220.40 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout $87.20 $0.00
--------------------------------- --------------- -----------
FDIC Total $1,551.50 $400.30
FDIC Liquidity Guarantees $1,400.00 $261.30
GE $139.00 $139.00
Citigroup Bailout FDIC $10.00 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout FDIC $2.50 $0.00
--------------------------------- --------------- -----------
Treasury Total $2,206.50 $1,621.00
TARP $700.00 $387.00
Tax Break for Banks $29.00 $29.00
Stimulus Package $168.00 $168.00
Stimulus II $787.00 $787.00
Treasury Exchange Stabilization $50.00 $50.00
Student Loan Purchases $60.00 $0.00
Citigroup Bailout $5.00 $0.00
Bank of America Bailout $7.50 $0.00
Support for Fannie/Freddie $400.00 $200.00
--------------------------------- --------------- -----------
HUD Total $300.00 $300.00
Hope for Homeowners FHA $300.00 $300.00



No comment is neccesary.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

MBA, CFA, BFD

"MBA, CFA, BFD."

I once had a boss that used that phrase anytime some greenhorn equity salesman would try to impress him with their spit-shined education credentials. I always got a kick out of that, especially since he was a CFA chartholder himself, and several of my colleagues had either an MBA, a CFA or both. He was a cynical man with a chip on his shoulder who was also fond of referring to this elite crowd as "the lucky sperm club." His roots were quite different than what he assumed were the roots of those he denigrated. He worked his way through a state school while supporting a young wife and special needs daughter as a tire salesman before launching a career in investment bank equity research which lead to his eventual early retirement as a rich, successful portfolio manager. I think it was his snide way of saying what Mark Twain once said: "I never let my schooling get in the way of my education." He had an excellent nose for bovine excrement, and was particularly suspicious of the brand that Ivy league MBA-types were fond of peddling.

There's an opinion column on Bloomberg today titled, "Harvard Narcissists With MBAs Killed Wall Street."

Twenty or 30 years ago, it was common for the best and the brightest to be doctors or engineers. By the 2000s, they wanted to be investment bankers.

When Wall Street was run by people randomly selected from the population, it was able to survive everything. After the best and brightest took over, it died the first time real-estate prices dropped 20 percent.

If you walked into any major Wall Street firm a year ago and randomly selected an employee, chances are that person would either be from an Ivy League school like Harvard University, or have an MBA, or both.
While there may be a handful of multi-talented people working on Wall St. for reasons other than the money they earn, the vast majority are attracted to Wall St. for one reason: the pay scale. The rationale being that if one is going to be a working stiff, one may as well be a working stiff at the top of the pay scale. The problem from the employer's point of view is that the pay scale becomes a self-reinforcing juggernaut rather quickly. The best and brightest are attracted to Wall St. for the money, so Wall St. firms get into a bidding war to attract the best and brightest. Elite universities then use that salary data to persuade the next crop of the best and brightest to attend their program, which further concentrates the size of the pool in which the best and brightest swim. Pretty soon all you have to choose from is the most elite pool that exists--the Ivy league and a handful of other institutions of the same caliber. The dangers of the resulting groupthink are rarely discussed, though today they are as apparent as a Skid Row hooker in a nunnery, and need no further elaboration.

What do you get from an MBA? One recent study found that MBAs acquire an enormous amount of self-confidence during their graduate education. They learn to believe that they are the best and the brightest.

This narcissism has a real career impact. Psychologists at Ohio State University studied the behavior of 153 MBA students, who were put in groups of four and asked to orchestrate a large financial transaction on behalf of an imaginary company. The psychologists observed that the students who had the strongest narcissistic traits were most likely to emerge as leaders.

According to Amy Brunell, the lead author, the results of the study had large implications for real-world settings, because “narcissistic leaders tend to have volatile and risky decision- making performance and can be ineffective and potentially destructive leaders.”

There is no shortage of narcissism on display in the upper echelons of Wall St. firms. Less overt but even more destructive is the narcissism displayed in the upper echelons of government officialdom. I say more destructive because government seldom makes any pretensions of fiscal constraint. Why should they? Afterall, it is not their own money they are borrowing and spending. Though it must be noted that TARP 1.0 has done a pretty thorough job of making private sector banking just as unaccountable as the public sector.

All of this may sound familiar to anybody who has read Herman Hesse's 1946 Nobel prize winning novel, The Glass Bead Game. In it, a member of the futuristic ivory tower elite--long having been insulated from the realities of life--decides to cast his privileged status aside for a life of rubbing elbows with the commoners. Tragedy befalls the protagonist when he drowns during what would be considered a routine swim across a lake by anybody who had not grown up insulated in the ivory tower. The moral of the story is that no matter how smart you think you are, nobody is above the laws of nature.

Another word that comes to mind when trying to describe the predicament Wall St. finds itself in is incest. When you choose the bulk of your work force from a single gene pool--no matter how gifted that gene pool may seem to be--the weakest traits inevitably surface and manifest themselves in such a way that makes the destruction of the host a real possibility. Ask the Ptolemaic Dynasty how incest worked out for them.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

It is done


It looks like both houses of Congress have agreed to the 1,000+ page, $787,000,000,000 "stimulus" package that is going to save our country from the abyss.

Before you accuse our elected officials of vigorously scratching the itch to spend our children's money, remember, it could have been worse:

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the stimulus package will cost $787 billion, rather than $789 billion lawmakers estimated earlier this week.
That is what passes as fiscal responsibility on Capitol Hill.

And this, from San Francisco's favorite carpetbagging daughter:

“The jobs the American people care about most -- their own -- will be dramatically safer the day that President Obama signs this plan into law,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat.
I know I feel much safer about my job after reading that. Please, somebody find me one sound-byte that falls out of her yapper that isn't plum-crazy talk.

This is interesting:

Lawmakers dropped provisions barring funds from going to museums, arts centers and theaters. A ban on money to casinos, golf courses, zoos and swimming pools was retained.
I like museums, arts centers and theaters as much as the next guy, which is why when I use them, I pay the price of admission which I assume is structured to cover the costs of doing business. Why they should get free money from the government; while casinos, golf courses, zoos and swimming pools(??) are all forced to survive in the capitalist--sorry--socialist wilderness on their own is beyond me. Well if this results in a reduction of the $25 price of admission to the shiny new California Academy of Sciences I suppose I will be forced to reconsider my stance on the entire "stimulus" bill.

Lawmakers deleted provisions requiring businesses receiving stimulus funding to use E-Verify, a government program used to ensure workers are in the country legally.
By all means, we must not upset the largest potential block of new democratic voters, at least not until after the 2010 census. If Obama successfully wrestles control of the census count away from the Dept. of Commerce and into the White House--which is illegal if the US Constitution is your guiding principle anyhow--illegal aliens will be a permanent fixture of the democratic machine.

Most senators had left the chamber’s floor hours before the final tally was announced. The vote was held open for five hours until Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, returned from his home state to cast the deciding vote for the bill. Brown had been in Ohio following the death of his mother earlier this week.
Rest In Peace Mrs. Brown; government has yet to invent a way to tax you in the afterlife. And if you thought curious, inquiring congressional minds may want to stick around and read what they just signed , you'd be wrong:

“It is over a thousand pages,” said Representative Tom Price, a Georgia Republican. “It is physically impossible for any member to have read this bill.”
I've been reading the abridged version of the History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire for almost 3 years now. It comes in a little under 1,000 pages. It is taking me a long time to read because it is a lot to digest, and nobody is paying me to read it. Maybe I should just thumb through it and tell people I read it instead. At least I wouldn't let contemplating any of the details hold me back from taking a first-class trip to Europe.

On a more positive note, what we need are more economists like Michelle talking no-nonsense economics with Obama supporters, capturing it on video and broadcasting it on YouTube.


(h/t texas rainmaker via instapundit for the image at the top of the page. Probably photoshopped or a prank, but it does capture the spirit of the Obama rapture rather well.)

Monday, February 09, 2009

The United States of Insolvency

This chart caught my eye over the weekend (from the Economist):



The biggest force behind the bond-market shock is the onslaught of new issuance as the government seeks to finance the gaping budget deficit, Fed liquidity programmes, mortgage purchases and bank bail-outs. Yields moved still higher this week partly on the Treasury’s announcement that it would borrow a whopping $493 billion this quarter. Wrightson ICAP, a research firm, predicts the Treasury will issue $1.8 trillion this year, which combined with $1.5 trillion last year, would exceed all the net borrowing of the prior 27 years combined.
Where are all the hyperventilating voices that expressed outrage when Dick Cheney said, "...deficits don't matter" almost 5 years ago?

The "state" of California

Speaking as a third generation Californian, my family has lived through many of the ups and downs our state has experienced over the last 100 years. One of the things that has always impressed me about this great state is its uncanny ability to reinvent itself in the face of adversity. Lately though, I have become worried about the future of this state. This goes against my nature, as I am generally an optimist and not given to alarmist reactions to events.

Though, when our state's elected officials cannot do the job we pay them to do by reaching an agreement on how to close a $46bil budget gap while our general obligation (GO) debt rating gets cut to "A"--giving us the lowest credit rating of any state and making borrowing even more expensive; this worries me. Sacramento, please end your symbiotic, incestuous relationship with your public union enablers immediately.

When in the midst of this, the "prison czar" has proposed $8 billion of wildly excessive prison health care construction (with the additional cost of $2bil a year for maintenance) complete with fitness centers for "wellness promotion," music and art therapy, contemporary landscaping and maybe even a yoga room for prisoners; this worries me. Hey guys, don't forget to grab a condom on your way back from arts and music so you can engage in a little state-sanctioned sodomy while $300,000 a year guards look the other way.

When a public employee can retire at the age of 52 and collect 78% of the $112,000 salary he earned before stepping down and maintain full health care coverage for life while the rest of us working in the private sector watch our 401(k) retirement plans vanish like a puddle in the Mojave desert and fret over the astronomical cost of COBRA should we lose our jobs; this worries me.

When the recently sworn in city supervisor in my district makes his first order of business to investigate allegations of police department racial profiling of Latinos in what is a predominately Latino district; this worries me. Next he'll be investigating ice for its habit of being frozen.

I fear we're about to reach a tipping point. We simply cannot continue on this fiscally irresponsible path. I may be old fashioned, but I always thought the public sector was supposed to serve the private sector, not the other way around. What we now have is a shrinking private sector that is being choked to death by a self-entitled public sector.

The one thing I am absolutely certain of is that the golden egg-laying goose is in its death-throes. When the autopsy comes back, there will be nothing but state politician and public sector union fingerprints all over its neck.

Friday, February 06, 2009

The time warp is stuck on continuous play

Trivia time! Guess the year of the following headline:

Fannie Mae to Loosen Rules for Home-Loan Refinancing

a) 1989
b) 1999
c) 2009

If you guessed "C" give yourself a prize!

From the article:

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance company under government control, will loosen rules for homeowners seeking to lower their loan payments by refinancing.

Fannie Mae will drop some credit-score requirements, reduce income-documentation standards and waive the need for appraisals in some cases, according to a notice yesterday to lenders posted on the Washington-based company’s Web site.
The changes apply to loans that the company owns or guarantees.

The company, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the $12 trillion in residential mortgage debt, is seeking to break a “logjam” in refinancing and allow more homeowners to take advantage of near-record low interest rates, according to Brian Faith, a Fannie Mae spokesman. The increased flexibility for consumers isn’t large enough to significantly harm mortgage- bond investors and mortgage insurers, analysts said.


Imagine if your house was burning down and when the fire department showed up, instead of turning on the water hoses they busted out the flame thrower instead.

For some strange reason, this scene from Groundhog Day keeps playing in my mind's eye.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

Death and T...oh nevermind.

It is pretty clear to me that the reason Democrats are such big fans of taxes is because they don't pay any taxes.

Leona Helmsley was right, when she allegedly said to one of her housekeepers, "We don't pay taxes. Only the little people pay taxes ..."

Though I wonder, what would happen if all of us little people simultaneously decided to stop paying taxes?

Monday, January 26, 2009

Trashed Prius

You see the darnedest things when you come to work a couple hours late:

I took this photo just down the street from my office this morning. Apparently, somebody has it in for hybrids; or maybe it's just the Toyota Prius. The windshield and the four side windows are smashed, sideview mirrors pulverized, all four tires flat, random black spray paint all over it; at least they could have left us with some thoughtful graffiti instead.

Who's to blame? Supporters of Big Oil, livid at the impressive, profit-crimping gas mileage the Prius delivers? A marauding gang of Chinese youths celebrating New Year and simultaneously administering symbolic payback for the rape of Nanking on the nearest symbol of Japanese success? This is the edge of Chinatown after all. Maybe it was done by a gaggle of patchouli drenched eco-youths who are confused by their conflicting feelings about global warming on this much colder than normal morning? If that's the case, it will probably be chalked up as a hate crime.

No matter who is to blame, were it my car, I'd be pretty freakin' pissed off.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Government front running

This is what happens when government front runs the private sector:




Bailouts Punish Investors in Bank Capital Notes
2009-01-23 12:13:34 .845 GMT

By John Glover
Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Investors in bank capital securities
are being punished as the notes plunge in value on concern
government bailouts will make them effectively worthless.
Lenders use so-called Tier 1 notes to bolster regulatory
capita and cushion senior bondholders and depositors against
losses. The CHART OF THE DAY (above) shows the $93 billion market is
suffering the biggest slide on record, according to data from
Merrill Lynch & Co.’s Euro Sub-Debt Tier 1 Index.
Banks may be forced to stop paying interest on the
securities as a condition of getting billions of dollars of
taxpayer’s cash, according to Simon Adamson, an analyst at
CreditSights Inc. The price slump is hurting investors such as
U.S. insurer Aflac Inc., whose shares fell the most in more than
25 years yesterday as Morgan Stanley called the firm’s
investments in “a rapidly escalating concern.”
“Tier 1 investors are being punished,” London-based
Adamson said in an interview. “Now that governments are bailing
out banks or nationalizing them, the risk of interest deferral is
increasing.”
Tier 1 bonds, which combine elements of equity and debt,
typically have no set maturity and issuers can defer or pass
interest payments. Holders are paid after other debt investors in
the event of a bankruptcy.
If there's one thing the market absolutely hates, it is uncertainty. As a private investor, why would you consider investing in anything if there was the chance that government was going to either change the rules of the game on a whim or step in front of you in the queue to book a return on investment?

This is a perfect example of why excessive government intervention will effectively prolong our much anticipated economic recovery.

Seems we may be doomed to learn the lessons of the 1930's all over again.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

The notion of too big to fail

The following bubble chart compares the current market capitalization of our nation's biggest banks to what they were in the second quarter of 2007:

The chart is a little fuzzy, but the blue bubble represents Q2'07 and the green bubble represents Q1'09 YTD. The giant bubble with the tiny inset bubble that looks like the earth against the sun is Citigroup.

This link leads to a state-by-state breakdown of the allocation of TARP funds. Interestingly, those states that are politically known as "blue" are the reddest of red in this depiction.

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU who has been getting a lot of press lately for correctly predicting the current banking crisis, thinks that losses may reach $3.6 trillion before we're through the woods:

“I’ve found that credit losses could peak at a level of $3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. “If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.”

Losses and writedowns at financial companies worldwide have risen to more than $1 trillion since the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

President Barack Obama will have to use as much as $1 trillion of public funds to shore up the capitalization of the banking sector, following the $350 billion injection by the Bush administration, Roubini told Bloomberg News. Congress last year approved a $700 billion rescue fund, of which half remains to be disbursed.


I have been opposed to the TARP bailout since it was first proposed on the grounds that nobody is too big to fail. What we have is a perversion of capitalism, where fiscally irresponsible behavior is rewarded not with failure, but with a government handout. This is then presented as "proof" that capitalism does not work by those who fail to consider that what it really is is an example of crony capitalism. It takes two to tango, so as easy as it is to blame all of this mess on greedy bankers as many do, even the current darling of progressive economic circles, J M Keynes, realized that, "it is a mistake to believe that businessmen are more immoral than politicians" as he wrote in a letter to FDR in 1938. What we are now witnessing are the legislative fruits of millions of dollars in lobbying efforts and generous campaign donations paid for by hedge funds and banks.

If we were living in a pure capitalistic system, those banks that chose to leverage themselves 40 to 1, chose to engage in hyper-risky lending and chose to create and sell derivatives with little to no intrinsic value would have to live with the consequences of their actions, which most likely would be either reorganization in bankruptcy or going out of business altogether. For every bank that failed, there would be another--a fiscally responsible one with a strong balance sheet--to take its place. These banks would then be allowed to sink or swim based on their ability to navigate the rough seas of finance. Contrary to what those "too big to fail" banks may tell you, these banks do exist.

Like many Americans, I "get" TARP, I just can't stand it either. Unlike the practitioners of crony capitalism who run our nation, I can see that the billions already spent and the billions more promised will have little to no effect in stimulating our economy. So why spend it in the first place?

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Too handsome to lampoon

Two hours and thirty five minutes into Obama's presidency, and already he's off limits to least one European cartoonist:

Obama too handsome for good satire -caricaturist

Tuesday, January 20, 2009 11:35:00 AM (GMT-08:00) BRUSSELS, Jan 20 (Reuters) -

U.S. President Barack Obama is too good looking to provide inspiration for cartoons in the same way George W. Bush served as fodder for some of their most biting commentary, a caricaturist on said Tuesday.

"It's never a gift for a caricaturist to draw a handsome man," said Pierre Kroll, from Belgium, which prides itself on its comic book culture including Tintin.

"Somehow, we prefer overweight people, people with a beard, huge noses, ridiculous glasses ... If caricaturists could elect presidents, we would choose people with faces we enjoy drawing, and not a playboy like him," said Kroll whose works appears in the Belgian daily "Le Soir".

Kroll said positive public sentiment towards the incoming U.S president might also make it harder for caricaturists whose portraits have to underline a person's weaknesses and flaws.

"Caricaturists like to be a bit nasty and here, he comes with a lot of sympathy, it's harder for us to do our job and mock him while Bush had become a favourite target for cartoonists," he said.

(Reporting by Bate Felix and Marine Hass)



I feel sorry for poor Pierre Kroll. He is so blinded by Bush-hatred that he fails to see that Obama's ears are almost as big as Dumbo the Elephant's. If those suckers aren't perfect caricature-fodder I don't know what is. Then he goes on to describe what really makes a good caricature, "overweight people, people with a beard, huge noses, ridiculous glasses" without stopping to consider that Bush possessed none of those features, yet they had a field day with him. I hope he has another skill to fall back on, because caricatures of the former President Bush are going to start to look a little out dated pretty quickly. Maybe he makes a really bitchen' Belgian waffle!

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Keynesian Economics and Venezuelan Amerindians

Barron's takes a dig at Keynesian economics:
IN FACT, HALF A LOAF COULD BE BETTER FOR the economy, and better for Obama's ultimate treatment in the history books, not to mention his re-election odds. A $500 billion package -- say, 60% tax cuts and 40% increased spending -- could realize his stated aim of spending money wisely, while providing significant fiscal stimulus.One reason for caution is that priming the pump never quite works the way the textbooks say it should. The economy's lifeblood isn't consumer demand, but rather credit, both for the financing of business investment and the purchase of consumer durables like cars. No amount of fiscal stimulus will make much difference if credit is constricted. If credit is available, jobs and higher incomes will follow.


Even the indigenous people of Venezuela realize that receiving free money and food from the government is not the path to prosperity (from the Economist):

The Yukpas are divided. Some oppose the land invasions and even support the ranchers. “Invasions are very bad,” says Rosario Romero, a Yukpa woman. “The ranchers worked for what they have. In the sierra there’s lots of land to cultivate maize and other crops.” She adds that, contrary to what radical Yukpa leaders say, her parents never suggested these lands were theirs. Her community had never received government help until Mr Chávez came along, she says, “Now we get money and food.” However, this encourages indolence. Many Yukpa women have married non-Amerindians, as she has done, “because the Yukpa men don’t want to work.”


I hereby nominate Rosario Romero for Treasury Secretary.